TrendBacktest only · unverifiedExample strategy by Loreli
Probability Momentum
Prediction markets often absorb news gradually. If a probability has moved decisively over the last few observations, this rule bets that the move continues for a while before fading.
Markets tested
8
Median net return
-0.9%
Profitable markets
0 / 8
Markets with trades
5
Equity · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Most active market in the sample, $1,000 start, default parameters
$733$816$899$981
12 May25 June9 Aug23 Sept7 Nov
Assumptions
- Buys the chosen outcome only (no shorting).
- Signal sees prices up to the current bar; fills at the next bar.
- Exits when the lookback change turns negative or after the max hold.
- Parameters: lookback (bars) 7, rise to trigger (pts) 5, max hold (bars) 14.
- 25% of equity per trade, 1% fee per fill, 1 pt slippage, daily prices, last 180 days.
- Sample: the 8 highest-volume live Polymarket markets right now — survivorship bias applies.
Per-market results
| Market | Trades | Net return | Max DD | Buy & hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -1.7% | 13.0% | -60.4% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | -75.2% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | +306.7% | |
| 5 | -28.5% | 28.5% | -48.8% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | -58.3% | |
| 2 | -1.4% | 2.9% | +1.2% | |
| 4 | -0.9% | 9.5% | -70.6% | |
| 3 | -23.7% | 23.7% | +203.1% |
Computed from Polymarket price history when this page was generated (refreshed every 15 minutes). Not live trading results. Not verified by an independent party.