ContrarianBacktest only · unverifiedExample strategy by Loreli
Mean Reversion
Thin markets overreact. When a probability drops well below its recent average without a clear reason, this rule bets that it drifts back.
Markets tested
8
Median net return
+0.0%
Profitable markets
1 / 8
Markets with trades
4
Equity · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Most active market in the sample, $1,000 start, default parameters
$851$909$966$1,023
12 May25 June9 Aug23 Sept7 Nov
Assumptions
- Rolling average uses only past and current bars.
- Exits on return to the average or after the max hold.
- Vulnerable to genuine information shocks that never revert.
- Parameters: rolling window (bars) 14, gap below average (pts) 4, max hold (bars) 21.
- 25% of equity per trade, 1% fee per fill, 1 pt slippage, daily prices, last 180 days.
- Sample: the 8 highest-volume live Polymarket markets right now — survivorship bias applies.
Per-market results
| Market | Trades | Net return | Max DD | Buy & hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | -16.1% | 19.0% | -60.4% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | -75.2% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | +306.7% | |
| 4 | +16.7% | 3.9% | -48.8% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | -58.3% | |
| 1 | -4.5% | 7.7% | +1.2% | |
| 4 | -26.6% | 29.8% | -70.6% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | +203.1% |
Computed from Polymarket price history when this page was generated (refreshed every 15 minutes). Not live trading results. Not verified by an independent party.