Create a strategy, import one you already run, or compose one from components other strategies expose. Choose the instrument and universe, replay with shared capital, fees and limits, then check it holds up out of sample, under resampling and across parameters. Save the result with its evidence attached.
The instrument sets pricing, settlement and execution. The subject only filters the universe.
Prediction-market contracts: Contracts pay 0 or 1 on resolution; prices are probabilities; position size is in dollars of contracts and P&L is bounded. Order-book fills with a taker fee; no depth in historical replays, so size is assumed available.
Data sources that cover this
PolymarketAvailable
price history, order books, trades, settlementExecutable replay · operated by Polymarket
Polymarket archiveAvailable
settled markets, hourly bars, resolutionsExecutable replay · operated by Loreli
Sharp trader positionsAvailable
tracked sharp wallets, net positions per trader, resolved history, daily rankingsApproximate backtest · operated by Lionel
KalshiComing soon
no data yetno replay · operated by Kalshi
Your model or agentPreview
whatever it exposes: discovered on connectResearch simulation · operated by you